Predicting the 2025 Oscars: My Final Predictions
A break from books to embrace my true purpose—awards season
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Best Picture
Best Director
Acting Categories
Screenplay Categories
International Feature
Animated Feature
Original Song
Below the Line: Tracking Oscars Precursors
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
If there’s one thing I’ve learned about the Oscars since I started predicting awards season three years ago, it’s this: Academy voters are kind of lazy. They do not really want to watch every movie submitted for consideration in every category. So, as far as I can tell—unless they are Academy member Carrie Coon—they simply won’t. From an outsider’s perspective, it would seem they like to be led. It’s why Andrea Riseborough earned a surprise Best Actress nomination in 2022 off the sheer force of her famous friends telling other famous people to vote for her. It’s why “career awards” discourse exists at all.
But most importantly, it’s why the awards are less of a toss-up than they seem. No, the Oscars are not driven by box office success or popularity with the general public (at least, not entirely). But they are driven by other precursors: industry awards. From well-known precursors like the Golden Globes to honors from critics like the National Board of Review’s Best Films list, to festival victories and awards spotlighting indie features, there’s no shortage of awards bodies gunning to name the best film of the year before the Oscars have a chance to. And, because Academy voters are kind of lazy, they listen.
With all that in mind, precursor awards play a major role in my predicting method. Though it’s certainly possible for a film to break into any Oscars category without receiving a single previous honor (see the above Andrea Riseborough debacle), by and large, the Academy voters who decide Oscar nominations tend to set their sights on films that have garnered at least a bit of awards attention—the more, the better.
At the bottom of this article, under my predictions, I’m including a list of the awards bodies I’m monitoring going into nomination season, and a bit of info about how well their nominees have lined up with the Oscars’ in the past.
Aside from both carefully monitoring the awards precursors and critical reception when it comes to the key contenders and looking at data from past Oscars, a lot of my prediction methodology is vibes-based. Will the 2025 Oscars follow in the footsteps of the last two years and show excess love to major blockbusters? Will more politically controversial picks like The Apprentice grab voters’ attention, or scare them off altogether? Which critically acclaimed indies will break through to grab the Academy’s attention, and which stop at Gotham?1
THE PREDICTIONS
BEST PICTURE
Final Update: Gascón-gate has left Emilia Pérez all but dead in the water (only when it comes to Best Picture, that is) once again opening up the field. After a guild sweep in which it won big at the WGA, PGA, and DGA awards, it looks like Anora is the clear frontrunner. But could Conclave’s BAFTA win for Best Film (and SAG win for Best Ensemble) mean the race isn’t quite as over as it seems?
Predicted Winner: Anora (Neon, dir. Sean Baker)
Who Should Win: Nickel Boys (Amazon/MGA, dir. RaMell Ross)
Actual Oscars Lineup
A Complete Unknown (Searchlight, dir. James Mangold)
Anora (Neon, dir. Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (A24, dir. Brady Corbet)
Conclave (Focus, dir. Edward Berger)
Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros, dir. Denis Villeneuve)
Emilia Pérez (Netflix, dir. Jaques Audiard)
Nickel Boys (Amazon/MGA, dir. RaMell Ross)
I’m Still Here (Sony, dir. Walter Salles)
The Substance (Mubi, dir. Coralie Fargeat)
Wicked (Universal, dir. Jon M. Chu)
My Final Predicted Lineup:
Last updated 1/18, ranked in order of likelihood.
Emilia Pérez (Netflix, dir. Jaques Audiard)
Anora (Neon, dir. Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (A24, dir. Brady Corbet)
Conclave (Focus, dir. Edward Berger)
Wicked (Universal, dir. Jon M. Chu)
A Complete Unknown (Searchlight, dir. James Mangold)
A Real Pain (Searchlight, dir. Jesse Eisenberg)
Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros, dir. Denis Villeneuve)
The Substance (Mubi, dir. Coralie Fargeat)
Sing Sing (A24, dir. Greg Kwedar)
Alternates:
Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM, dir. RaMell Ross)
Challengers (Amazon MGM/Warner Bros, dir. Luca Guadagnino)
BEST DIRECTOR
Final Update: Hope is not entirely dead for The Brutalist’s Brady Corbet—but it’s on life support.
Predicted Winner: Sean Baker, Anora
Who Should Win: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Actual Oscars Lineup:
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
My Final Predicted Lineup:
Last updated 1/18, ranked in order of likelihood.
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Edward Berger, Conclave
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Alternates:
Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys)
BEST ACTRESS
Final Update: With major wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice awards, the Best Actress prize should be Demi Moore’s to lose. But could Anora’s recent guild sweep—and more importantly, its star’s recent BAFTA win—throw the race back to Mikey Madison? Or was Moore’s even more recent SAG win an indicator of the Academy’s preferences? Finally, are we too quick to discount Fernanda Torres?
Predicted Winner: Demi Moore, The Substance
Who Should Win: Demi Moore, The Substance
Actual Oscars Lineup:
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
My Final Predicted Lineup:
Last updated 1/18, ranked in order of likelihood.
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Alternates:
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Who Should Win: Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Actual Oscars Lineup:
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
My Final Predicted Lineup:
Last updated 1/18, ranked in order of likelihood.
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Daniel Craig, Queer
Alternates:
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Hugh Grant, Heretic
Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pèrez
Who Should Win: Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Actual Oscars Lineup:
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pèrez
My Final Predicted Lineup:
Last updated 1/18, ranked in order of likelihood.
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pèrez
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
Alternates:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
The Breakdown:
Strong Bets
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Solid Possibilities
Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Less Likely
Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown
Carol Kane, Between the Temples
Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Who Should Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Actual Oscars Lineup:
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
My Final Predicted Lineup:
Last updated 1/18, ranked in order of likelihood.
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Yura Borisov, Anora
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Alternates:
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
The Breakdown:
Strong Bets
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Solid Possibilities
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Less Likely
Bryan Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
Karren Karagulian, Anora
Adam Pearson, A Different Man
Peter Sarsgaard, September 5
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Final Update: This category could ultimately indicate how the rest of Oscars night goes: if thee award goes to frontrunner Anora, it’s likely the sign of a sweep for the remaining categories, leading up to a Best Picture win. But if A Real Pain manages to nab the award, it might kick off a night of upsets as with the Golden Globes, where Anora lost all nominations.
Predicted Winner: Anora (Sean Baker)
Who Should Win: A Real Pain
Actual Oscars Lineup:
Anora (Sean Baker)
A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg)
The Brutalist (Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
September 5 (Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum)
The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)
My Final Predicted Lineup:
Updated 1/18, ranked in order of likelihood.
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg)
The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)
September 5 (Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum)
Alternates:
Hard Truths (Mike Leigh)
Challengers (Justin Kuritzkes)
All We Imagine as Light (Payal Kapadia)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Final Update: If this is the one and only place where Conclave gets its flowers, they’ll be more than well-deserved.
Predicted Winner: Conclave (Peter Straughan)
Who Should Win: Conclave (Peter Straughan)
Actual Oscars Lineup:
A Complete Unknown (Jay Cocks, James Mangold)
Conclave (Peter Straughan)
Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard)
Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes)
Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield)
My Final Predicted Lineup:
Updated 1/18, ranked in order of likelihood.
Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard)
Conclave (Peter Straughan)
Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield)
A Complete Unknown (Jay Cocks, James Mangold)
Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes)
Alternates:
Dune: Part Two (Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts)
Wicked (Winnie Holzman)
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Final Update: Like Best Original Screenplay, this could be a key indicator for the rest of the night. Was Karla Sofia Gascón’s scandal enough to move voters away from Emilia Pérez? I’m doubtful, but if the answer is yes, that could mean I’m Still Here takes the prize. If that comes to pass, does Fernanda Torres still have a fighting chance in the Best Actress race?
Predicted Winner: Emilia Pérez (France)
Who Should Win: I’m Still Here (Brazil)
Actual Oscars Lineup:
Emilia Pérez (France)
Flow (Latvia)
The Girl With the Needle (Denmark)
I’m Still Here (Brazil)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
My Final Predicted Lineup:
Last updated 1/18, ranked in order of likelihood.
Emilia Pérez (France)
I’m Still Here (Brazil)
Flow (Latvia)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Vermiglio (Italy)
Alternates:
Kneecap (Ireland)
The Girl With the Needle (Denmark)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Final Update: While Flow has been on an awards season sweep thus far, there’s still a chance it might be shut out of the final night thanks to The Wild Robot, which seems to be carefully building steam. Could the Academy voters’ general favorability towards English-language films change their allegiance in the 11th hour, or will the international voting bloc save Flow?
Predicted Winner: Flow (Janus Films/Sideshow, dir. Gints Zilbalodis)
Who Should Win: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (Netflix, dir. Nick Park & Merlin Crossingham)
Actual Oscars Lineup:
Flow (Janus Films/Sideshow, dir. Gints Zilbalodis)
Inside Out 2 (Pixar, dir. Kelsey Mann)
Memoir of a Snail (IFC, dir. Adam Elliot)
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (Netflix, dir. Nick Park & Merlin Crossingham)
The Wild Robot (Dreamworks, dir. Chris Sanders)
My Final Predicted Lineup:
Last updated 1/18, ranked in order of likelihood.
Flow (Janus Films/Sideshow, dir. Gints Zilbalodis)
Inside Out 2 (Pixar, dir. Kelsey Mann)
Memoir of a Snail (IFC, dir. Adam Elliot)
Wallace & Gromit: A Vengeance Most Fowl (Netflix, dir. Nick Park & Merlin Crossingham)
The Wild Robot (Dreamworks, dir. Chris Sanders)
Alternates:
Moana 2 (Disney, dir. Dana Ledoux Miller, Jason Hand, David Derrick)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Final Update: At least they’re not performing live.
Predicted Winner: El Mal (Emilia Pérez)
Who Should Win: Never Too Late (Elton John: Never Too Late)
Actual Oscars Lineup:
Last updated 1/18, ranked in order of likelihood.
El Mal (Emilia Pérez)
The Journey (Six Triple Eight)
Kiss the Sky (The Wild Robot)
Mi Camino (Emilia Pérez)
Never Too Late (Elton John: Never Too Late)
My Final Predicted Lineup:
Last updated 1/18, ranked in order of likelihood.
El Mal (Emilia Pérez)
Mi Camino (Emilia Pérez)
The Journey (Six Triple Eight)
Kiss the Sky (The Wild Robot)
Compress/Repress (Challengers)
Alternates:
Harper & Will Go West (Will & Harper)
Never Too Late (Elton John: Never Too Late)
Sick in the Head (Kneecap)
BELOW THE LINE
Update from nomination day: I’m keeping this section going! Though I may be cutting it down quite a bit. Several of the categories don’t have a clear frontrunner, so I’ll continue to keep track of how the nominees perform across precursors like the BAFTAs and Critics Choice Awards.
In this section, I’ll monitor the contenders on their journeys through the precursor season. Below, I’ve listed every film I’m considering a contender for any given category (in alphabetical order, unranked) in order to keep track of how many nominations and wins each accrues. As some awards bodies, such as the National Board of Review, release only their list of winners, and not nominees, they’ll only be counted in the “wins” categories, and will not contribute toward the contender’s total nominations count. I will also make note of when contenders earn nominations in especially important precursors, like the Golden Globes and guild-specific awards.
The Precursors
Major Awards Shows
Golden Globes — Nominees announced December 9, ceremony January 5*
Of all awards bodies, the Golden Globes are perhaps the biggest indicator of potential Oscar nominees. For example, last awards season, every nominee in the Globes’ Best Drama Feature category was later nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars (and the winner, Oppenheimer, went on to take the prize). Four of the six Best Comedy Feature nominees would also earn a Best Picture nod. However, there’s an obvious caveat: because the Globes separate their Feature and Lead Actor/Actress categories into Comedy and Drama, there are twice as many nominees to contend with, meaning by nature, there are at least a few Golden Globe nominees each year who have little to no shot at moving on to the Oscars, and still others who seem like strong Oscars contenders, but just won’t make the final cut.
Satellite Awards - Nominees announced December 18, ceremony January 26, 2025
BAFTAs - Nominees announced January 15, 2025, ceremony February 16
Independent Film Awards:
Because these awards bodies are focused specifically on awarding independent films, by nature, they’re the least aligned with the actual Oscar nominations. However, they can be critical in determining which indie films (and stars) are most likely to break through into the Oscars space, and given the rapid ascent of indie distributors like A24 and Neon in awards spaces, monitoring the indie scene is more important than ever. (In the last five years alone, A24 has had four Best Picture nominations and two wins, while Neon has had three nominees and one win. In total, A24 has had 62 Oscar nominations across categories, while Neon has had 32.)
Gotham Awards - Ceremony December 2
Film Independent Spirit Awards - Nominees announced December 4, ceremony February 22, 2025
Critics Awards:
Astra Awards (formerly Hollywood Critics Association Awards) - Nominees announced November 25, ceremony December 9
Critics Choice Awards - Nominees announced December 12, ceremony February 7, 2025
National Board of Review (NBR) - Winners announced December 4
National Society of Film Critics (NSFC) - Winners announced January 4
New York Film Critics Circle Awards (NYFCC) - Winners announced December 3
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards (LAFCA) - Winners announced December 9, 20242
Guild-Specific Awards:
Because directors, actors, producers, and writers make up the vast majority of the Academy’s voting body, it’s only natural that their respective guild-specific awards should be especially prescient precursors to the Oscars. But while picking up a guild nomination can be critical for Oscars hopefuls, it’s not always quite as 1:1 as one might think.
Directors Guild Awards (Directors Only) - February 8, 2025*
This can be a critical precursor for predicting Best Director (and helpful in predicting Best Picture), but the DGA is not always entirely aligned with the will of the rest of the Academy voters.
Producers Guild Awards (Best Picture Only) - February 8, 2025*
In 2024, the Producers Guild predicted the Best Picture category 1:1—every one of the ten films nominated at the PGA Awards went on to earn a Best Picture nomination, and the winner, Oppenheimer, went on to win Best Picture.
SAG Awards (Acting Categories Only) - February 23, 2025*
In the 2023-24 cycle, SAG predicted the winners of the Oscars’ Big Four acting categories almost perfectly: the two awards had the same winner for Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress. However, the nominations were a slightly different story—in both Supporting categories, multiple SAG nominees would go on to lose out on the Oscar nod.
WGA Awards (Screenplay Categories Only) - February 15, 2025*
See the above note about the DGA
Other Considerations:
Festival Honors (Cannes, Venice, TIFF, Berlinale, etc)
End of Year Lists: American Film Institute (AFI), NBR
European Film Awards3
BEST PICTURE
A Complete Unknown (Searchlight, dir. James Mangold)
Nominations: 3 (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA)
Wins: None (AFI & NBR Top 10)
Anora (Neon, dir. Sean Baker)
Nominations: 8 (Gotham, Indie Spirit, Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, NSFC, BAFTA)
Wins: 4 (Cannes Palm d’Or, LAFCA, Critics Choice, PGA) (AFI & NBR Top 10)
The Brutalist (A24, dir. Brady Corbet)
Nominations: 6 (LAFCA, Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, BAFTA)
Wins: 2 (NYFCC, Golden Globes) (AFI Top 10)
Conclave (Focus, dir. Edward Berger)
Nominations: 5 (Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, BAFTA)
Wins: 1 (AFI & NBR Top 10, BAFTA)
Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros, dir. Denis Villeneuve)
Nominations: 4 (Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite)
Wins: None (AFI Top 10)
Emilia Peréz (Netflix, dir. Jaques Audiard)
Nominations: 5 (European Film Awards, Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA)
Wins: 2 (European Film Awards, Golden Globes) (AFI Top 10)
Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM, dir. RaMell Ross)
Nominations: 5 (Gotham, Indie Spirit, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite)
Wins: 1 (NSFC) (AFI Top 10)
The Substance (Mubi, dir. Coralie Fargeat)
Nominations: 6 (Indie Spirit, European Film Awards, Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite)
Wins: None
Wicked (Universal, dir. Jon M. Chu)
Nominations: 4 (Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite)
Wins: 2 (NBR, Astra)
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Peréz
Nominations: 2 (Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, DGA, BAFTA)
Wins: 1 (European Film Awards)
Sean Baker, Anora
Nominations: 8 (Gotham, Indie Spirit, Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, NSFC, DGA, BAFTA)
Wins: 1 (DGA)
Edward Berger, Conclave
Nominations: 4 (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, DGA, BAFTA)
Wins: None
Jon M. Chu, Wicked
Nominations: 2 (Astra, Critics Choice)
Wins: 3 (NBR, Astra, Critics Choice)
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Nominations: 5 (Indie Spirit, Astra, Critics Choice, Satellite, DGA, BAFTA)
Wins: 2 (Golden Globes, BAFTA)
Vera Drew, The People’s Joker
Nominations: 1 (Indie Spirit)4
Wins: 1 (Gotham)
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Nominations: 3 (Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA)
Wins: None
Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light
Nominations: 2 (Golden Globes, DGA)
Wins: 1 (NSFC)
Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
Nominations: 1 (Satellite)
Wins: None
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Nominations: 1 (DGA)
Wins: None
RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
Nominations: 5 (Gotham, Critics Choice, Satellite, NSFC, DGA)
Wins: 2 (Gotham, NYCC)
Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Nominations: None
Wins: 1 (LAFCA)
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Nominations: None
Wins: None
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
Nominations: 3 (Critics Choice, Satellite, BAFTA)
Wins: None
BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Nominations: 2 (Indie Spirit, Golden Globes)
Wins: None
Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
Nominations: 3 (Gotham, Golden Globes, SAG)
Wins: None
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Nominations: 5 (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, SAG, BAFTA)
Wins: 1 (Astra)5
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez,
Nominations: 5 (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, SAG, BAFTA)
Wins: 1 (European Film Awards)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Nominations: 3 (Gotham, Critics Choice, BAFTA)
Wins: 3 (NYCC, LAFCA, NSFC)
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Nominations: 3 (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite)
Wins: None6
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Nominations: 3 (Gotham, Golden Globes, Satellite)
Wins: 2 (Venice Film Festival Volpi Cup, NBR)
Mikey Madison, Anora
Nominations: 8 (Gotham, Indie Spirit, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, NSFC, SAG, BAFTA)
Wins: 2 (LAFCA, BAFTA)
Demi Moore, The Substance
Nominations: 7 (Gotham, Indie Spirit, LAFCA, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, SAG, BAFTA)
Wins: 2 (Golden Globes, Critics Choice)
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
Nominations: 3 (European Film Awards, Golden Globes, Satellite)
Wins: None
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Nominations: 3 (LAFCA, Golden Globes, Satellite)
Wins: 1 (Golden Globes)
Kate Winslet, Lee
Nominations: 1 (Golden Globes)
Wins: None
Zendaya, Challengers
Nominations: 1 (Golden Globes)
Wins: None
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Nominations: 8 (Gotham, Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, NSFC, SAG, BAFTA)
Wins: 4 (NYCC, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA)
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Nominations: 6 (Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, BAFTA)
Wins: 1 (Astra)7
Daniel Craig, Queer
Nominations: 5 (European Film Awards, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite)
Wins: 1 (NBR)
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Nominations: 7 (Gotham, Indie Spirit, Astra, Golden Globes, Satellite, BAFTA)
Wins: 2 (Gotham, NSFC)
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Nominations: 3 (Astra, Golden Globes, Satellite)
Wins: None
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Nominations: 7 (European Film Awards, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, NSFC, BAFTA)
Wins: None
Hugh Grant, Heretic
Nominations: 4 (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, BAFTA)
Wins: None
Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
Nominations: 1 (Golden Globes)
Wins: 2 (Berlin International Film Festival Silver Bear, Golden Globes)
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Nominations: 3 (Indie Spirit, Golden Globes, BAFTA)
Wins: None
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Nominations: 1 (SAG)
Wins: None
Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
Nominations: 2 (SAG, BAFTA)
Wins: None
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Nominations: 6 (Gotham, Indie Spirit, Astra, Critics Choice, Satellite, SAG)
Wins: None
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
Nominations: 3 (Astra, Critics Choice, NSFC)
Wins: None
Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown
Nominations: None
Wins: 1 (NBR)
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Nominations: 2 (Golden Globes, BAFTA)
Wins: 1 (Cannes Best Actress)
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Nominations: 6 (Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, SAG, BAFTA)
Wins: 1 (Astra)8
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Nominations: 3 (Golden Globes, Satellite, BAFTA)
Wins: None
Carol Kane, Between the Temples
Nominations: 1 (Indie Spirit)
Wins: 2 (NYCC, NBR)
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Nominations: 3 (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite)
Wins: None
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Nominations: 4 (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, BAFTA)
Wins: None
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
Nominations: None
Wins: None
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Nominations: 6 (Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, SAG, BAFTA)
Wins: 5 (Cannes Best Actress, Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov, Anora
Nominations: 8 (Gotham, Indie Spirit, Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, SAG, BAFTA)
Wins: 1 (LAFCA)
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Nominations: 8 (Gotham, Indie Spirit, Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, SAG, BAFTA)
Wins: 8 (NBR, NYFCC, LAFCA, Astra, NSFC, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA)
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Nominations: 6 (Gotham, Indie Spirit, LAFCA, Astra, Critics Choice, Satellite, BAFTA)
Wins: 1 (Gotham)
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Nominations: 6 (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, NSFC, SAG, BAFTA)
Wins: None
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Nominations: 7 (Gotham, Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, NSFC, BAFTA)
Wins: None
Adam Pearson, A Different Man
Nominations: 4 (Gotham, Indie Spirit, LAFCA, NSFC)
Wins: None
Peter Sarsgaard, September 5
Nominations: None
Wins: None
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Nominations: 3 (Golden Globes, SAG, BAFTA)
Wins: None
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Nominations: 4 (Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite)
Wins: None
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
A Different Man
Nominations: 1 (Indie Spirit)
Wins: (None)
Anora
Nominations: 6 (LAFCA, Astra, Golden Globes, Satellite, NSFC, BAFTA)
Wins: 2 (NYCC, WGA)
A Real Pain
Nominations: 6 (Indie Spirit, Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, BAFTA)
Wins: 4 (LAFCA, Astra, NSFC, BAFTA)
The Brutalist
Nominations: 5 (Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, BAFTA)
Wins: None
Challengers
Nominations: 1 (Critics Choice)
Wins: None
Hard Truths
Nominations: 1 (Satellite)
Wins: 1 (NBR)
Heretic
Nominations: 1 (Indie Spirit)
Wins: None
His Three Daughters
Nominations: 2 (Gotham, Indie Spirit)
Wins: None
Janet Planet
Nominations: 2 (Gotham, Indie Spirit)
Wins: None
Maria
Nominations: None
Wins: None
September 5
Nominations: None
Wins: None
The Substance
Nominations: 5 (Astra, Golden Globes, Satellite, Critics Choice, BAFTA)
Wins: 1 (Critics Choice)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown
Nominations: 1 (BAFTA)
Wins: None
Conclave
Nominations: 5 (Astra, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, BAFTA)
Wins: 3 (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA)
Dune: Part Two
Nominations: 2 (Astra, Critics Choice)
Wins: 1 (Astra)
Emilia Pérez
Nominations: 5 (European Film Awards, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, BAFTA)
Wins: 1 (European Film Awards)
Nickel Boys
Nominations: 4 (Astra, Critics Choice, Satellite, BAFTA)
Wins: 1 (WGA)
Sing Sing
Nominations: 4 (Astra, Critics Choice, Satellite, BAFTA)
Wins: 1 (NBR)
Wicked
Nominations: 2 (Astra, Critics Choice)
Wins: None
BEST INTERNATIONAL/NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE FEATURE
All We Imagine As Light (India)9
Nominations: 4 (Indie Spirit, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA)
Wins: 4 (Gotham, LAFCA, NYFCC NSFC) (NBR Top 5 International Films List)
Armand (Norway)
Nominations: None
Wins: None
Dahomey (Senegal)
Nominations: None
Wins: None
Do Not Expect Too Much From the End of the World (Romania)
Nominations: 1 (NSFC)
Wins: None
Emilia Pérez (France)
Nominations: 3 (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA)
Wins: 3 (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA)
Flow (Latvia)
Nominations: 2 (Indie Spirit, Critics Choice)
Wins: None
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
Nominations: 2 (Golden Globes, Satellite)
Wins: None (NBR Top 5)
Hard Truths (United Kingdom)
Nominations: 2 (Gotham, Indie Spirit)
Wins: None
I’m Still Here (Brazil)
Nominations: 4 (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, BAFTA)
Wins: None (NBR Top 5)
Kneecap (Ireland)
Nominations: 2 (Critics Choice, BAFTA)
Wins: None
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Nominations: 6 (LAFCA, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Satellite, NSFC, BAFTA)
Wins: 1 (NBR)
Vermiglio (Italy)
Nominations: 2 (Gotham, Golden Globes)
Wins: None
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My prediction: Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, and Sing Sing will manage to break through with voters, with possible room left over for Nickel Boys and Babygirl (at least, when it comes to Nicole Kidman). A Different Man, His Three Daughters, and Queer, though equally deserving, feel less likely to make the cut. The jury’s out on The Substance, which has received some love from regional critics circles, though my gut says it will be another major snub.
Note: LAFCA announces one winner and one runner-up in each category. In this article, I’ll count runner-up mentions toward the film’s total nomination count.
As the name implies, only European productions are eligible for the European Film Awards, limiting their compatibility with the Oscars. However, given the number of European films that have serious Oscar potential this year (including Emilia Pérez, Conclave, The Substance, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, and The Room Next Door, to name a few), it does make for an interesting indicator of which have legs.
Drew and The People’s Joker are nominated for the John Cassavetes Award—presented to an outstanding creative team of a film with a budget of less than $1 million—at the Indie Spirits. Drew also received a special honor, the “New Generation” award, from LAFCA for her work in The People’s Joker. Last year, this award went to Celine Song for her work in Past Lives.
Erivo received a special honor, the Spotlight Award, from the National Board of Review, alongside co-star Ariana Grande for their “creative collaboration,” but the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress titles went elsewhere.
Jolie received a special honor, the Performer Tribute, at the Gotham Awards for her work in Maria, but was not nominated for Best Leading Performance.
Chalamet received a special honor, the Visionary Tribute, at the Gotham Awards for his work in A Complete Unknown (alongside director James Mangold), but he was not nominated for Best Actor.
See Footnote #2
Ineligible for Best International Feature