And the 2025 Emmy Goes To...
Round 1: The Nominees
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Shhh!! There’s no time! Emmy nominations drop in, like, six hours.
But you also know the drill. The White Lotus (and, not for nothing, Severance) have gone from a welcome phenomenon to a plague that prevents any other drama series from getting a fair shot. This is especially true in the Supporting Actress and Actor categories, where the two series’ extensive ensembles threaten to dominate completely.
On the other hand, Adolescence excluded, this was a pretty boring year for limited series. The Netflix hit will likely dominate in the categories where it’s eligible (series, lead actor, supporting actor, and supporting actress), but that still leaves a few slots open for other contenders. Sadly, Netflix’s decision to submit The Perfect Couple as a drama rather than a limited series will likely be the beach drama’s downfall.
However, for the first time in years, we actually have some new and interesting comedies threatening to shake up the Abbott-Hacks-The Bear domination. While all three series are safe bets for across-the-board nominations, several new bombshells have entered the villa.
AppleTV’s star-studded The Studio and Netflix’s rom-com Nobody Wants This stand to pick up major nominations for their respective first seasons in both series and acting categories. The Four Seasons, with its similarly stacked cast, feels like a longer shot in this crowded of a year, but it’s hardly out of contention. Meanwhile, AppleTV’s well-loved Bill Lawrence comedy Shrinking, which did well when its first season was Emmy-eligible in 2023, will likely pick up a few more nominations for its overcrowded second season.
Speaking of new and interesting: my previous lamentations about the Drama categories aside, there is one potentially interesting nomination on the table. Two-time Emmy winner Kathy Bates could pick up a nomination for CBS legal drama Matlock, making her the first nominee of the 2020s from a traditional network drama (rather than a cable or streaming service.) Though Bates is not the most likely winner by any means, if she does manage to go home with the trophy, it will be the first time a network TV star has done so in the category since 2015, when Viola Davis last won for How To Get Away With Murder. Is network TV… actually coming back?
Lastly, a logistical note: Unlike with the Oscars, Emmy voters are not married to a pre-set number of nominees in any one category. With that in mind, when it comes to the number of nominees, my final nominee predictions are largely vibes-based. Come morning, the actual ceremony could have easily more or fewer nominees.
DRAMA SERIES
Final 8:
The Diplomat
The Last of Us
The Pitt
Paradise
Severance1
Slow Horses
Squid Game
The White Lotus
Safe Bets:
The Last of Us
The Pitt
Severance
Slow Horses
The White Lotus
Serious Contenders:
Andor
The Diplomat
The Handmaid’s Tale
Paradise
Squid Game
Yellowjackets
Likely Snubs:
Bad Sisters
Bridgerton
Industry
Interview With the Vampire
BEST LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Final 5:
Kathy Bates, Matlock
Britt Lower, Severance
Elizabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Safe Bets:
Kathy Bates, Matlock
Britt Lower, Severance
Elizabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Serious Contenders:
Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Likely Snubs:
Carrie Preston, Elsbeth
BEST LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Final 5:
Sterling K. Brown, Paradise
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
Adam Scott, Severance
Noah Wyle, The Pitt
Safe Bets:
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
Adam Scott, Severance
Noah Wyle, The Pitt
Serious Contenders:
Sterling K. Brown, Paradise
Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game
Diego Luna, Andor
Eddie Redmayne, The Day of the Jackal
Billy Bob Thornton, Landman
Likely Snubs:
Jacob Anderson, Interview With the Vampire
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Final 6:
Patricia Arquette, Severance
Leslie Bibb, The White Lotus
Carrie Coon, The White Lotus
Allison Janney, The Diplomat
Parker Posey, The White Lotus
Aimee Lou Wood, The White Lotus
Safe Bets:
Carrie Coon, The White Lotus
Parker Posey, The White Lotus
Aimee Lou Wood, The White Lotus
Serious Contenders:
Patricia Arquette, Severance
Leslie Bibb, The White Lotus
Allison Janney, The Diplomat
Dichen Lachman, Severance
Katherine LaNasa, The Pitt
Michelle Monaghan, The White Lotus
Likely Snubs:
Isa Briones, The Pitt
Taylor Dearden, The Pitt
Tracy Ifeachor, The Pitt
Delainey Hayles, Interview With the Vampire
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Final 6:
Walton Goggins, The White Lotus
Jason Isaacs, The White Lotus
Jack Lowden, Slow Horses
Sam Rockwell, The White Lotus
Tramell Tillman, Severance
John Tuturro, Severance
Safe Bets:
Walton Goggins, The White Lotus
Jason Isaacs, The White Lotus
Tramell Tillman, Severance
Serious Contenders:
Jack Lowden, Slow Horses
James Marsden, Paradise
Sam Rockwell, The White Lotus
John Tuturro, Severance
Christopher Walken, Severance
Likely Snubs:
Patrick Ball, The Pitt
Sam Reid, Interview With the Vampire
Stellan Skarsgård, Andor
BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Final 5:
Gwendoline Christie, Severance
Kaitlyn Dever, The Last of Us
Catherine O’Hara, The Last of Us
Samantha Sloyan, The Pitt
Hillary Swank, Yellowjackets
Alternates: Merrit Weaver, Severance; Cherry Jones, The Handmaid’s Tale
BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Beau Bridges, Matlock
Scott Glenn, The Last of Us
Shawn Hatosy, The Pitt
Ben Mendelsohn, Andor
Jeffrey Wright, The Last of Us
Alternate: Gong Yoo, Squid Game
COMEDY SERIES
Final 8:
Abbott Elementary
The Bear
The Four Seasons
Hacks
Only Murders in the Building
Nobody Wants This
Shrinking
The Studio
Safe Bets:
Abbott Elementary
The Bear
Hacks
Only Murders in the Building
Shrinking
The Studio
Serious Contenders:
The Four Seasons
Nobody Wants This
Poker Face
What We Do in the Shadows
Likely Snubs:
The Righteous Gemstones
Running Point
BEST LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Final 5:
Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face
Jean Smart, Hacks
Safe Bets:
Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Jean Smart, Hacks
Serious Contenders:
Uzo Aduba, The Residence
Tina Fey, The Four Seasons
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Kathryn Hahn, Agatha All Along
Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face
Likely Snubs:
Kate Hudson, Running Point
Edi Patterson, The Righteous Gemstones
BEST LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Final 5:
Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Seth Rogen, The Studio
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders In The Building
Safe Bets:
Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Seth Rogen, The Studio
Serious Contenders:
Ted Danson, A Man On The Inside
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Likely Snubs:
Danny McBride, The Righteous Gemstones
Matt Berry, What We Do in the Shadows
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Final 6:
Liza Colon-Zayas, The Bear
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Catherine O’Hara, The Studio
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Jessica Williams, Shrinking
Safe Bets:
Liza Colón-Zayas, The Bear
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Catherine O’Hara, The Studio
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Serious Contenders:
Kathryn Hahn, The Studio
Ego Nwodim, Saturday Night Live
Linda Lavin, Mid-Century Modern
Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building
Lisa Ann Walter, Abbott Elementary
Jessica Williams, Shrinking
Likely Snubs:
Patti Harrison, Poker Face
Jane Lynch, Only Murders in the Building
Megan Stalter, Hacks
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Final 6:
Ike Barinholtz, The Studio
Paul W. Downs, Hacks
Harrison Ford, Shrinking
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live
Safe Bets:
Ike Barinholtz, The Studio
Paul W. Downs, Hacks
Harrison Ford, Shrinking
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Serious Contenders:
Colman Domingo, The Four Seasons
Brett Goldstein, Shrinking
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live
Likely Snubs:
Walton Goggins, The Righteous Gemstones
Harvey Guillén, What We Do in the Shadows
BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Final 5:
Jamie Lee Curtis, The Bear
Cynthia Erivo, Poker Face
Melissa McCarthy, Only Murders in the Building
Julianne Nicholson, Hacks
Kaitlin Olson, Hacks
Alternates: Ariana Grande, Saturday Night Live; Zoë Kravitz, The Studio
BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Final 5:
John Bernthal, The Bear
Bradley Cooper, The Righteous Gemstones
Bryan Cranston, The Studio
Ron Howard, The Studio
Martin Scorsese, The Studio
LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES
Final 5:
Adolescence
Black Mirror
Dying for Sex
Monsters: The Erik and Lyle Menendez Story
The Penguin
Safe Bets:
Adolescence
Black Mirror
Dying for Sex
Monsters: The Erik and Lyle Menendez Story
The Penguin
Serious Contenders:
Presumed Innocent
Sirens
Say Nothing
Disclaimer
BEST LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY, OR TV MOVIE
Final 5:
Cate Blanchett, Disclaimer
Rashida Jones, Black Mirror
Cristin Milioti, The Penguin
Lola Petticrew, Say Nothing
Michelle Williams, Dying for Sex
Safe Bets:
Cate Blanchett, Disclaimer
Cristin Milioti, The Penguin
Michelle Williams, Dying for Sex
Serious Contenders:
Meghann Fahy, Sirens
Rashida Jones, Black Mirror
Lola Petticrew, Say Nothing
Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy
BEST LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY, OR TV MOVIE
Final 5:
Paul Giamatti, Black Mirror
Colin Farrell, The Penguin
Stephen Graham, Adolescence
Brian Tyree Henry, Dope Thief
Cooper Koch, Monsters
Safe Bets:
Colin Farrell, The Penguin
Stephen Graham, Adolescence
Cooper Koch, Monsters
Serious Contenders:
Steve Carell, Mountainhead
Nicholas Alexander Chavez, Monsters
Paul Giamatti, Black Mirror
Jake Gyllenhaal, Presumed Innocent
Brian Tyree Henry, Dope Thief
Kevin Kline, Disclaimer
Chris O’Dowd, Black Mirror
Likely Snubs:
Gael Garcia Bernal, La Máquina
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY, OR TV MOVIE
Final 5:
Erin Doherty, Adolescence
Deirdre O’Connell, The Penguin
Chloë Sevigny, Monsters
Jenny Slate, Dying for Sex
Christine Tremarco, Adolescence
Safe Bets:
Erin Doherty, Adolescence
Deirdre O’Connell, The Penguin
Jenny Slate, Dying for Sex
Christine Tremarco, Adolescence
Serious Contenders:
Milly Alcock, Sirens
Emma Corrin, Black Mirror
Cristin Milioti, Black Mirror
Ruth Negga, Presumed Innocent
Chloë Sevigny, Monsters
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY, OR TV MOVIE
Final 5:
Javier Bardem, Monsters
Owen Cooper, Adolescence
Rob Delaney, Dying for Sex
Nathan Lane, Monsters
Ashley Walters, Adolescence
Safe Bets:
Javier Bardem, Monsters
Owen Cooper, Adolescence
Ashley Walters, Adolescence
Serious Contenders:
Anthony Boyle, Say Nothing
Rob Delaney, Dying for Sex
Nathan Lane, Monsters
Wagner Moura, Dope Thief
Peter Sarsgaard, Presumed Innocent
Likely Snubs:
Diego Luna, La Máquina
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Collage by the author.
Bold font indicates early frontrunners.